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DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

41-22  |  Road

103
FINAL
Sun, Mar 9 • 1:00 PM ET
Paycom Center
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

52-11  |  Home

127
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
NUGGETS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
253.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.8
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.8 points (Oklahoma City)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

14.0%

Thunder Cover

86.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -10.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

DEN By 1-7 points

9.6%

DEN By 8-14 points

2.8%

OKC By 1-7 points

21.9%

OKC By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
121.22
DENVER
132.02
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
113
DENVER
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.8
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 253.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 OKC @ DEN 107 - 127
Mar 9, 2026 DEN @ OKC 126 - 129
Feb 27, 2026 DEN @ OKC 121 - 127
Feb 1, 2026 OKC @ DEN 121 - 111
May 18, 2025 DEN @ OKC 93 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +42.2% more
Oklahoma City: 10.5 vs Denver: 7.4
Blocks (L5) +33.7% more
Oklahoma City: 6.0 vs Denver: 4.5
Free Throw % (L5) +10.0%
Oklahoma City: 87.1% vs Denver: 77.1%
Assists (L5) +16.7% more
Denver: 34.2 vs Oklahoma City: 28.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 121.2 103
OKC Score 132.0 127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.4 / 42.5 34.2 / 30.0
Assists 28.5 / 34.2 25.0 / 22.0
Blocks 6.0 / 4.5 14.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 49.3 / 52.1 48.9 / 41.2
Free Throw % 87.1 / 77.1 88.0 / 55.0
Rebounding 43.7 / 43.3 56.0 / 48.0
Steals 10.5 / 7.4 5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 12.8 5.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
DEN
OKC
DEN
ML
70% 80-34
54% 57-48
48% 46-49
55% 47-39
ATS
73% 83-30-1
63% 65-38-2
48% 46-49
55% 47-39
TTL
67% 76-38
54% 56-48-1
100% 95-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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