Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Pistons OKC @ DET

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

54-12  |  Road

113
FINAL
Sat, Mar 15 • 7:00 PM ET
Little Caesars Arena
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

PISTONSDET

37-30  |  Home

107
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
📊
PISTONS
0%
THUNDER --
PISTONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
250.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Detroit)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 PistonsDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

44.3%

Pistons Cover

55.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DET -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

OKC By 1-7 points

23.7%

OKC By 8-14 points

13.0%

DET By 1-7 points

26.5%

DET By 8-14 points

17.6%

AI Model Projected Score
124.29
OKLAHOMA CITY
125.73
DETROIT
Simulated Score
104
OKLAHOMA CITY
128
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pistons Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pistons Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pistons (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.4
D
Sim Pistons (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 250.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 30, 2026 DET @ OKC 110 - 114
Feb 25, 2026 OKC @ DET 116 - 124
Apr 2, 2025 DET @ OKC 103 - 119
Mar 15, 2025 OKC @ DET 113 - 107
Jan 28, 2024 OKC @ DET 104 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +29.0% more
Detroit: 13.8 vs Oklahoma City: 10.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
Oklahoma City: 37.7% vs Detroit: 34.0%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.7%
Oklahoma City: 82.1% vs Detroit: 78.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 124.3 113
DET Score 125.7 107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.0 / 37.7 42.4 / 29.4
Assists 24.9 / 24.9 29.0 / 17.0
Blocks 5.9 / 5.8 3.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 48.6 47.7 / 48.3
Free Throw % 78.3 / 82.1 69.2 / 77.3
Rebounding 47.6 / 44.1 39.0 / 44.0
Steals 8.3 / 8.2 8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 13.8 / 10.7 17.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
DET
67-29-0 (69.8%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
DET Advantage
50-46-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
OKC
DET
OKC
ML
55% 64-53
70% 80-34
49% 47-49
48% 46-49
ATS
53% 60-54-3
73% 83-30-1
49% 47-49
48% 46-49
TTL
60% 70-46-1
67% 76-38
100% 96-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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