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PHILADELPHIA

76ERSPHI

23-45  |  Road

100
FINAL
Wed, Mar 19 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

56-12  |  Home

133
AI Model Win Probability
76ERS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
76ERS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
238.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.1
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 points (Oklahoma City)
76ersPHI (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

76ers Cover

34.1%

Thunder Cover

65.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -4.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

PHI By 1-7 points

20.0%

PHI By 8-14 points

9.1%

OKC By 1-7 points

27.4%

OKC By 8-14 points

21.8%

AI Model Projected Score
117.15
PHILADELPHIA
121.26
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
115
PHILADELPHIA
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.1
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 238.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 23, 2026 OKC @ PHI 123 - 103
Dec 28, 2025 PHI @ OKC 104 - 129
Mar 19, 2025 PHI @ OKC 100 - 133
Jan 14, 2025 OKC @ PHI 118 - 102
Apr 2, 2024 OKC @ PHI 105 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +19.6% more
Oklahoma City: 46.1 vs Philadelphia: 38.5
Assists (L5) +19.5% more
Oklahoma City: 24.9 vs Philadelphia: 20.8
Free Throw % (L5) +4.7%
Oklahoma City: 79.0% vs Philadelphia: 74.3%
Steals (L5) +26.2% more
Philadelphia: 9.6 vs Oklahoma City: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 117.2 100
OKC Score 121.3 133
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.8 / 38.3 46.2 / 31.6
Assists 24.9 / 20.8 36.0 / 24.0
Blocks 5.4 / 5.4 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 49.5 / 48.6 52.2 / 36.8
Free Throw % 79.0 / 74.3 75.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 46.1 / 38.5 55.0 / 41.0
Steals 7.1 / 9.6 10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 13.7 14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI Advantage
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2% Total +/-: +1.4
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
PHI
OKC
PHI
ML
70% 80-34
63% 69-40
48% 46-49
48% 45-48
ATS
73% 83-30-1
65% 71-38
48% 46-49
48% 45-48
TTL
67% 76-38
55% 60-49
100% 95-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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