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CHARLOTTE

HORNETSCHA

18-51  |  Road

106
FINAL
Fri, Mar 21 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

57-12  |  Home

141
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
HORNETS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.9
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.9 points (Oklahoma City)
HornetsCHA (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

21.4%

Thunder Cover

78.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -7.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

CHA By 1-7 points

13.8%

CHA By 8-14 points

4.9%

OKC By 1-7 points

25.4%

OKC By 8-14 points

26.1%

AI Model Projected Score
113.79
CHARLOTTE
121.71
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
107
CHARLOTTE
128
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.9
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 235.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 5, 2026 CHA @ OKC 124 - 97
Nov 15, 2025 OKC @ CHA 109 - 96
Oct 9, 2025 CHA @ OKC 116 - 122
Oct 5, 2025 OKC @ CHA 135 - 114
Mar 21, 2025 CHA @ OKC 106 - 141
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +67.4% more
Oklahoma City: 8.1 vs Charlotte: 4.8
Rebounding (L5) +9.4% more
Oklahoma City: 49.0 vs Charlotte: 44.8
Blocks (L5) +8.2% more
Oklahoma City: 5.3 vs Charlotte: 4.9
Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
Oklahoma City: 50.4% vs Charlotte: 46.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHA Score 113.8 106
OKC Score 121.7 141
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.6 / 37.8 53.8 / 46.3
Assists 28.6 / 27.3 29.0 / 29.0
Blocks 5.3 / 4.9 7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 50.4 / 46.7 57.4 / 46.3
Free Throw % 77.7 / 83.4 70.6 / 100.0
Rebounding 49.0 / 44.8 43.0 / 29.0
Steals 8.1 / 4.8 10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 14.4 9.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
45-39-0 (53.6%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA Advantage
50-34-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9% Total +/-: -3.4
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
CHA
OKC
CHA
ML
70% 80-34
61% 60-39
48% 46-49
48% 40-44
ATS
73% 83-30-1
60% 59-40
48% 46-49
48% 40-44
TTL
67% 76-38
58% 57-42
100% 95-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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