Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Kings OKC @ SAC

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

59-12  |  Road

121
FINAL
Tue, Mar 25 • 10:00 PM ET
Golden 1 Center
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

35-36  |  Home

105
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
KINGS
100%
THUNDER --
KINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.5
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.5 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 KingsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

85.4%

Kings Cover

14.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -10.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

22.3%

OKC By 8-14 points

27.3%

SAC By 1-7 points

9.9%

SAC By 8-14 points

2.9%

AI Model Projected Score
121.96
OKLAHOMA CITY
111.41
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
115
OKLAHOMA CITY
118
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Kings Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.5
D
Sim Kings (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 233.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 19, 2025 SAC @ OKC 99 - 113
Nov 7, 2025 OKC @ SAC 132 - 101
Oct 28, 2025 SAC @ OKC 101 - 107
Mar 25, 2025 OKC @ SAC 121 - 105
Feb 1, 2025 SAC @ OKC 110 - 144
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +62.6% more
Oklahoma City: 6.6 vs Sacramento: 2.5
Steals (L5) +28.0% more
Oklahoma City: 8.8 vs Sacramento: 6.3
Assists (L5) +13.4% more
Oklahoma City: 28.5 vs Sacramento: 24.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.5%
Oklahoma City: 40.5% vs Sacramento: 34.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 122.0 121
SAC Score 111.4 105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.0 / 40.5 48.9 / 59.4
Assists 24.7 / 28.5 32.0 / 30.0
Blocks 2.5 / 6.6 7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 48.6 40.7 / 52.4
Free Throw % 81.2 / 78.5 66.7 / 80.0
Rebounding 41.9 / 45.4 36.0 / 52.0
Steals 6.3 / 8.8 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 10.7 11.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
OKC
SAC
OKC
ML
55% 55-45
70% 80-34
61% 50-32
48% 46-49
ATS
54% 52-45-3
73% 83-30-1
61% 50-32
48% 46-49
TTL
58% 57-42-1
67% 76-38
100% 82-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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