MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
44-28 | Road
104
OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
60-12 | Home
125
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
THUNDER
0%
GRIZZLIES
--
THUNDER
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.5
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.5 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -12.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
MEM By 1-7 points
7.4%
MEM By 8-14 points
1.9%
OKC By 1-7 points
19.4%
OKC By 8-14 points
27.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
115.6
MEMPHIS
Oklahoma City
128.07
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
Memphis
106
MEMPHIS
Oklahoma City
121
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Thunder
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunder
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thunder (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.5
D
Sim
Thunder (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 243.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 9, 2026
OKC @ MEM
117 - 116
Dec 22, 2025
MEM @ OKC
103 - 119
Nov 9, 2025
OKC @ MEM
114 - 100
Apr 26, 2025
OKC @ MEM
117 - 115
Apr 24, 2025
OKC @ MEM
114 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+45.8% more
Oklahoma City: 6.4
vs
Memphis: 4.4
Turnovers (L5)
+16.7% more
Oklahoma City: 12.8
vs
Memphis: 10.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.0%
Oklahoma City: 46.8%
vs
Memphis: 38.8%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.2%
Oklahoma City: 49.9%
vs
Memphis: 47.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
115.6
104
OKC Score
128.1
125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
46.8 / 38.8
41.9 / 38.1
Assists
29.0 / 30.2
28.0 / 28.0
Blocks
6.4 / 4.4
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.9 / 47.7
48.9 / 41.8
Free Throw %
79.0 / 83.5
85.7 / 95.7
Rebounding
47.6 / 46.2
45.0 / 36.0
Steals
8.2 / 8.4
9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 10.9
12.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
OKC
Advantage
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
MEM
OKC
MEM
ML
70%
80-34
57%
59-44
48%
46-49
50%
41-41
ATS
73%
83-30-1
63%
65-38
48%
46-49
50%
41-41
TTL
67%
76-38
70%
71-31-1
100%
95-0
100%
82-0
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