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INDIANA

PACERSIND

43-30  |  Road

111
FINAL
Sat, Mar 29 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

61-12  |  Home

132
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
📊
THUNDER
100%
PACERS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
248.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Indiana)
PacersIND (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

50.8%

Thunder Cover

49.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

IND By 1-7 points

25.5%

IND By 8-14 points

15.6%

OKC By 1-7 points

25.1%

OKC By 8-14 points

15.0%

AI Model Projected Score
124.51
INDIANA
124.3
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
119
INDIANA
123
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pacers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pacers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.2
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 248.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 23, 2026 IND @ OKC 117 - 114
Oct 23, 2025 OKC @ IND 141 - 135
Oct 11, 2025 OKC @ IND 101 - 116
Jun 22, 2025 IND @ OKC 91 - 103
Jun 19, 2025 OKC @ IND 91 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +19.3% more
Indiana: 35.5 vs Oklahoma City: 28.7
Turnovers (L5) +9.9% more
Indiana: 13.9 vs Oklahoma City: 12.5
Free Throw % (L5) +6.3%
Indiana: 87.5% vs Oklahoma City: 81.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.5%
Indiana: 54.1% vs Oklahoma City: 49.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 124.5 111
OKC Score 124.3 132
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 45.2 / 44.1 47.2 / 33.3
Assists 28.7 / 35.5 26.0 / 27.0
Blocks 5.6 / 4.1 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 49.5 / 54.1 51.1 / 44.8
Free Throw % 81.3 / 87.5 82.6 / 73.1
Rebounding 46.7 / 44.9 47.0 / 43.0
Steals 8.5 / 8.1 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 13.9 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
IND
OKC
IND
ML
70% 80-34
48% 47-50
48% 46-49
54% 45-38
ATS
73% 83-30-1
59% 57-40
48% 46-49
54% 45-38
TTL
67% 76-38
54% 52-45
100% 95-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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