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CHICAGO

BULLSCHI

33-41  |  Road

117
FINAL
Mon, Mar 31 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

62-12  |  Home

145
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
BULLS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
254.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.9
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.9 points (Oklahoma City)
BullsCHI (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulls Cover

11.8%

Thunder Cover

88.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -11.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

CHI By 1-7 points

8.2%

CHI By 8-14 points

2.2%

OKC By 1-7 points

20.3%

OKC By 8-14 points

27.3%

AI Model Projected Score
121.35
CHICAGO
133.21
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
112
CHICAGO
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.9
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 254.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 27, 2026 CHI @ OKC 113 - 131
Mar 3, 2026 OKC @ CHI 116 - 108
Mar 31, 2025 CHI @ OKC 117 - 145
Oct 26, 2024 OKC @ CHI 114 - 95
Nov 22, 2023 CHI @ OKC 102 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +42.7% more
Oklahoma City: 5.1 vs Chicago: 3.5
Steals (L5) +28.8% more
Oklahoma City: 8.6 vs Chicago: 6.7
Free Throw % (L5) +5.1%
Oklahoma City: 81.7% vs Chicago: 76.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
Oklahoma City: 45.9% vs Chicago: 42.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHI Score 121.4 117
OKC Score 133.2 145
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 45.9 / 42.2 53.5 / 31.4
Assists 27.8 / 32.1 39.0 / 29.0
Blocks 5.1 / 3.5 6.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 50.1 / 49.1 53.1 / 44.9
Free Throw % 81.7 / 76.6 78.3 / 81.3
Rebounding 46.8 / 48.3 44.0 / 43.0
Steals 8.6 / 6.7 11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 14.7 14.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI
31-51-0 (37.8%)
Margin: -5.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI
39-43-0 (47.6%)
Margin: -5.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
38-44-0
O: 46.3% / U: 53.7% Total +/-: +0.5
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
CHI
OKC
CHI
ML
70% 80-34
56% 54-42
48% 46-49
57% 46-35
ATS
73% 83-30-1
65% 62-33-1
48% 46-49
57% 46-35
TTL
67% 76-38
58% 56-40
100% 95-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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