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DETROIT

PISTONSDET

42-33  |  Road

103
FINAL
Wed, Apr 2 • 9:30 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

63-12  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
PISTONS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
249.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Oklahoma City)
PistonsDET (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pistons Cover

42.1%

Thunder Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

DET By 1-7 points

23.0%

DET By 8-14 points

12.2%

OKC By 1-7 points

26.8%

OKC By 8-14 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
123.9
DETROIT
125.89
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
125
DETROIT
105
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pistons Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Pistons (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 249.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 30, 2026 DET @ OKC 110 - 114
Feb 25, 2026 OKC @ DET 116 - 124
Apr 2, 2025 DET @ OKC 103 - 119
Mar 15, 2025 OKC @ DET 113 - 107
Jan 28, 2024 OKC @ DET 104 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +53.8% more
Oklahoma City: 9.4 vs Detroit: 6.1
Blocks (L5) +24.6% more
Oklahoma City: 5.4 vs Detroit: 4.3
Assists (L5) +23.4% more
Oklahoma City: 31.5 vs Detroit: 25.5
Turnovers (L5) +19.6% more
Oklahoma City: 12.5 vs Detroit: 10.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 123.9 103
OKC Score 125.9 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 48.4 / 39.6 26.3 / 30.3
Assists 31.5 / 25.5 25.0 / 20.0
Blocks 5.4 / 4.3 11.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 51.1 / 46.0 43.8 / 40.4
Free Throw % 80.6 / 77.6 80.6 / 84.0
Rebounding 45.9 / 42.7 46.0 / 43.0
Steals 9.4 / 6.1 12.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 10.4 10.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
67-29-0 (69.8%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
50-46-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6% Total +/-: -0.8
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
DET
OKC
DET
ML
70% 80-34
55% 64-53
48% 46-49
49% 47-49
ATS
73% 83-30-1
53% 60-54-3
48% 46-49
49% 47-49
TTL
67% 76-38
60% 70-46-1
100% 95-0
100% 96-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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