Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Rockets OKC @ HOU

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

64-12  |  Road

111
FINAL
Fri, Apr 4 • 8:00 PM ET
Toyota Center
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

50-27  |  Home

125
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
ROCKETS
100%
THUNDER --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
251.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 RocketsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

59.8%

Rockets Cover

40.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

27.1%

OKC By 8-14 points

19.3%

HOU By 1-7 points

22.4%

HOU By 8-14 points

11.5%

AI Model Projected Score
126.81
OKLAHOMA CITY
124.34
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
109
OKLAHOMA CITY
118
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.5
D
Sim Rockets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 251.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 HOU @ OKC 112 - 106
Jan 15, 2026 OKC @ HOU 111 - 91
Oct 21, 2025 HOU @ OKC 124 - 125
Apr 4, 2025 OKC @ HOU 111 - 125
Mar 3, 2025 HOU @ OKC 128 - 137
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +30.3% more
Oklahoma City: 7.3 vs Houston: 5.1
Steals (L5) +29.0% more
Oklahoma City: 10.3 vs Houston: 7.3
Free Throw % (L5) +8.0%
Oklahoma City: 80.6% vs Houston: 72.6%
Rebounding (L5) +17.1% more
Houston: 53.8 vs Oklahoma City: 45.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 126.8 111
HOU Score 124.3 125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.7 / 41.0 44.8 / 37.1
Assists 27.9 / 29.3 24.0 / 24.0
Blocks 5.1 / 7.3 5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 49.2 / 48.7 48.9 / 48.3
Free Throw % 72.6 / 80.6 84.6 / 80.0
Rebounding 53.8 / 45.9 48.0 / 33.0
Steals 7.3 / 10.3 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 11.6 15.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
HOU
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
OKC
HOU
OKC
ML
61% 69-44
70% 80-34
59% 51-35
48% 46-49
ATS
62% 70-43
73% 83-30-1
59% 51-35
48% 46-49
TTL
51% 58-55
67% 76-38
100% 86-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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