Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Thunder LAL @ OKC

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

47-30  |  Road

126
FINAL
Sun, Apr 6 • 3:30 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

64-13  |  Home

99
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
LAKERS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.7
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.7 points (Oklahoma City)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

32.0%

Thunder Cover

68.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -4.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

LAL By 1-7 points

19.1%

LAL By 8-14 points

8.4%

OKC By 1-7 points

27.3%

OKC By 8-14 points

22.6%

AI Model Projected Score
118.82
LOS ANGELES
123.49
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
113
LOS ANGELES
117
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.7
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 242.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 11, 2026 OKC @ LAL 115 - 110
May 9, 2026 OKC @ LAL 131 - 108
May 7, 2026 LAL @ OKC 107 - 125
May 5, 2026 LAL @ OKC 90 - 108
Apr 7, 2026 OKC @ LAL 123 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +107.0% more
Oklahoma City: 6.8 vs Los Angeles: 3.3
Steals (L5) +27.6% more
Oklahoma City: 9.2 vs Los Angeles: 7.2
Assists (L5) +9.5% more
Oklahoma City: 27.6 vs Los Angeles: 25.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
Oklahoma City: 39.7% vs Los Angeles: 38.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 118.8 126
OKC Score 123.5 99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.7 / 38.1 32.4 / 55.0
Assists 27.6 / 25.2 20.0 / 25.0
Blocks 6.8 / 3.3 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.5 / 47.8 43.3 / 54.8
Free Throw % 80.4 / 88.6 75.0 / 70.6
Rebounding 41.6 / 39.5 34.0 / 43.0
Steals 9.2 / 7.2 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 12.2 7.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
LAL
OKC
LAL
ML
70% 80-34
61% 68-43
48% 46-49
54% 49-42
ATS
73% 83-30-1
61% 67-43-1
48% 46-49
54% 49-42
TTL
67% 76-38
61% 66-43-2
100% 95-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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