Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Thunder LAL @ OKC

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

48-30  |  Road

120
FINAL
Tue, Apr 8 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

64-14  |  Home

136
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
0%
📊
THUNDER
100%
LAKERS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.1
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Los Angeles)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

62.1%

Thunder Cover

37.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LAL -3.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

LAL By 1-7 points

27.3%

LAL By 8-14 points

20.3%

OKC By 1-7 points

21.5%

OKC By 8-14 points

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
122.67
LOS ANGELES
119.59
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
114
LOS ANGELES
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lakers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lakers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.1
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 242.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 11, 2026 OKC @ LAL 115 - 110
May 9, 2026 OKC @ LAL 131 - 108
May 7, 2026 LAL @ OKC 107 - 125
May 5, 2026 LAL @ OKC 90 - 108
Apr 7, 2026 OKC @ LAL 123 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +21.4% more
Los Angeles: 13.8 vs Oklahoma City: 10.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.5%
Los Angeles: 43.8% vs Oklahoma City: 37.3%
Free Throw % (L5) +4.0%
Los Angeles: 82.6% vs Oklahoma City: 78.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
Los Angeles: 50.1% vs Oklahoma City: 46.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 122.7 120
OKC Score 119.6 136
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.3 / 43.8 48.6 / 45.0
Assists 25.0 / 25.1 26.0 / 21.0
Blocks 5.6 / 2.9 5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 46.8 / 50.1 50.0 / 46.3
Free Throw % 78.6 / 82.6 70.0 / 75.7
Rebounding 39.1 / 40.7 44.0 / 45.0
Steals 9.1 / 6.8 9.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 13.8 7.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
LAL
OKC
LAL
ML
70% 80-34
61% 68-43
48% 46-49
54% 49-42
ATS
73% 83-30-1
61% 67-43-1
48% 46-49
54% 49-42
TTL
67% 76-38
61% 66-43-2
100% 95-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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