Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Suns OKC @ PHX

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

65-14  |  Road

125
FINAL
Wed, Apr 9 • 10:00 PM ET
PHX Arena
View Odds Details →

PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

35-44  |  Home

112
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
SUNS
100%
THUNDER --
SUNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.5
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.5 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 SunsPHX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

83.0%

Suns Cover

17.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -9.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

23.6%

OKC By 8-14 points

27.1%

PHX By 1-7 points

11.3%

PHX By 8-14 points

3.6%

AI Model Projected Score
120.57
OKLAHOMA CITY
111.03
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
114
OKLAHOMA CITY
118
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Suns Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.5
D
Sim Suns (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 231.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 27, 2026 OKC @ PHX 131 - 122
Apr 25, 2026 OKC @ PHX 121 - 109
Apr 22, 2026 PHX @ OKC 107 - 120
Apr 19, 2026 PHX @ OKC 84 - 119
Apr 12, 2026 PHX @ OKC 135 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +41.7% more
Oklahoma City: 5.4 vs Phoenix: 3.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.9%
Oklahoma City: 41.1% vs Phoenix: 28.2%
Assists (L5) +8.7% more
Oklahoma City: 25.4 vs Phoenix: 23.2
Field Goal % (L5) +4.4%
Oklahoma City: 47.9% vs Phoenix: 43.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 120.6 125
PHX Score 111.0 112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.2 / 41.1 35.7 / 40.0
Assists 23.2 / 25.4 31.0 / 24.0
Blocks 3.1 / 5.4 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 47.9 48.3 / 52.3
Free Throw % 84.3 / 75.7 68.4 / 85.2
Rebounding 38.6 / 40.7 38.0 / 44.0
Steals 9.4 / 9.1 10.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 14.8 / 9.6 15.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
PHX
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
OKC
PHX
OKC
ML
57% 60-45
70% 80-34
51% 45-43
48% 46-49
ATS
58% 59-43-3
73% 83-30-1
51% 45-43
48% 46-49
TTL
59% 61-42-2
67% 76-38
100% 88-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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