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MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

0-0  |  Road

80
FINAL
Sun, Apr 20 • 1:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

0-0  |  Home

131
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
GRIZZLIES --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
245.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.2
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.2 points (Oklahoma City)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

11.1%

Thunder Cover

88.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -12.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

MEM By 1-7 points

7.8%

MEM By 8-14 points

2.1%

OKC By 1-7 points

19.8%

OKC By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
116.71
MEMPHIS
128.9
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
118
MEMPHIS
102
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.2
D
Sim Grizzlies (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 245.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 9, 2026 OKC @ MEM 117 - 116
Dec 22, 2025 MEM @ OKC 103 - 119
Nov 9, 2025 OKC @ MEM 114 - 100
Apr 26, 2025 OKC @ MEM 117 - 115
Apr 24, 2025 OKC @ MEM 114 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +25.2% more
Oklahoma City: 9.7 vs Memphis: 7.7
Blocks (L5) +11.4% more
Oklahoma City: 4.1 vs Memphis: 3.7
Turnovers (L5) +29.5% more
Memphis: 14.4 vs Oklahoma City: 10.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.3%
Memphis: 40.8% vs Oklahoma City: 34.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 116.7 80
OKC Score 128.9 131
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.5 / 40.8 35.4 / 17.6
Assists 25.5 / 26.8 36.0 / 18.0
Blocks 4.1 / 3.7 8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 48.3 / 47.7 50.5 / 34.4
Free Throw % 80.1 / 83.2 93.3 / 83.3
Rebounding 47.0 / 48.6 54.0 / 43.0
Steals 9.7 / 7.7 12.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 14.4 16.0 / 24.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
MEM
OKC
MEM
ML
70% 80-34
57% 59-44
48% 46-49
50% 41-41
ATS
73% 83-30-1
63% 65-38
48% 46-49
50% 41-41
TTL
67% 76-38
70% 71-31-1
100% 95-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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