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MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

0-1  |  Road

99
FINAL
Tue, Apr 22 • 7:30 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

1-0  |  Home

118
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
GRIZZLIES --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
244.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.7
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.7 points (Oklahoma City)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

3.1%

Thunder Cover

96.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -18.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

MEM By 1-7 points

2.3%

MEM By 8-14 points

0.4%

OKC By 1-7 points

9.8%

OKC By 8-14 points

20.6%

AI Model Projected Score
112.78
MEMPHIS
131.44
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
108
MEMPHIS
120
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -18.7
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 244.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 9, 2026 OKC @ MEM 117 - 116
Dec 22, 2025 MEM @ OKC 103 - 119
Nov 9, 2025 OKC @ MEM 114 - 100
Apr 26, 2025 OKC @ MEM 117 - 115
Apr 24, 2025 OKC @ MEM 114 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +42.7% more
Oklahoma City: 5.4 vs Memphis: 3.8
Steals (L5) +39.8% more
Oklahoma City: 10.4 vs Memphis: 7.5
Assists (L5) +21.6% more
Oklahoma City: 29.0 vs Memphis: 23.9
Field Goal % (L5) +5.8%
Oklahoma City: 49.0% vs Memphis: 43.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 112.8 99
OKC Score 131.4 118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.8 / 33.1 33.3 / 32.3
Assists 29.0 / 23.9 21.0 / 17.0
Blocks 5.4 / 3.8 8.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 49.0 / 43.3 43.3 / 42.9
Free Throw % 84.5 / 83.2 81.3 / 78.6
Rebounding 49.4 / 46.8 55.0 / 42.0
Steals 10.4 / 7.5 8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 17.6 7.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
MEM
OKC
MEM
ML
70% 80-34
57% 59-44
48% 46-49
50% 41-41
ATS
73% 83-30-1
63% 65-38
48% 46-49
50% 41-41
TTL
67% 76-38
70% 71-31-1
100% 95-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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