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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

2-0  |  Road

114
FINAL
Thu, Apr 24 • 9:30 PM ET
FedExForum
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

0-2  |  Home

108
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
GRIZZLIES
100%
THUNDER --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
240.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.5
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.5 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

91.1%

Grizzlies Cover

8.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -13.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

17.8%

OKC By 8-14 points

26.6%

MEM By 1-7 points

6.3%

MEM By 8-14 points

1.5%

AI Model Projected Score
127.04
OKLAHOMA CITY
113.57
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
106
OKLAHOMA CITY
118
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.5
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 240.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 9, 2026 OKC @ MEM 117 - 116
Dec 22, 2025 MEM @ OKC 103 - 119
Nov 9, 2025 OKC @ MEM 114 - 100
Apr 26, 2025 OKC @ MEM 117 - 115
Apr 24, 2025 OKC @ MEM 114 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +37.8% more
Oklahoma City: 9.6 vs Memphis: 6.0
Blocks (L5) +33.0% more
Oklahoma City: 6.3 vs Memphis: 4.2
Assists (L5) +18.1% more
Oklahoma City: 26.3 vs Memphis: 21.6
Rebounding (L5) +11.8% more
Oklahoma City: 51.2 vs Memphis: 45.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 127.0 114
MEM Score 113.6 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.8 / 34.3 33.3 / 34.2
Assists 21.6 / 26.3 23.0 / 24.0
Blocks 4.2 / 6.3 7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 43.2 / 47.1 43.4 / 45.3
Free Throw % 81.7 / 83.4 84.6 / 69.7
Rebounding 45.2 / 51.2 41.0 / 43.0
Steals 6.0 / 9.6 9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 16.8 / 10.4 16.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
OKC
MEM
OKC
ML
57% 59-44
70% 80-34
50% 41-41
48% 46-49
ATS
63% 65-38
73% 83-30-1
50% 41-41
48% 46-49
TTL
70% 71-31-1
67% 76-38
100% 82-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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