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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

3-0  |  Road

117
FINAL
Sat, Apr 26 • 3:30 PM ET
FedExForum
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

0-3  |  Home

115
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
GRIZZLIES
100%
THUNDER --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.4
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.4 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

89.3%

Grizzlies Cover

10.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -12.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

19.5%

OKC By 8-14 points

27.1%

MEM By 1-7 points

7.5%

MEM By 8-14 points

2.0%

AI Model Projected Score
124.76
OKLAHOMA CITY
112.33
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
105
OKLAHOMA CITY
118
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.4
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 237.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 9, 2026 OKC @ MEM 117 - 116
Dec 22, 2025 MEM @ OKC 103 - 119
Nov 9, 2025 OKC @ MEM 114 - 100
Apr 26, 2025 OKC @ MEM 117 - 115
Apr 24, 2025 OKC @ MEM 114 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +28.3% more
Oklahoma City: 9.8 vs Memphis: 7.0
Assists (L5) +13.7% more
Oklahoma City: 25.6 vs Memphis: 22.1
Rebounding (L5) +9.7% more
Oklahoma City: 48.5 vs Memphis: 43.8
Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
Oklahoma City: 46.5% vs Memphis: 43.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 124.8 117
MEM Score 112.3 115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.0 / 34.3 38.7 / 20.0
Assists 22.1 / 25.6 24.0 / 22.0
Blocks 5.1 / 5.5 10.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 43.2 / 46.5 46.3 / 43.6
Free Throw % 82.7 / 78.9 96.7 / 80.0
Rebounding 43.8 / 48.5 51.0 / 33.0
Steals 7.0 / 9.8 4.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 16.5 / 10.6 22.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
OKC
MEM
OKC
ML
57% 59-44
70% 80-34
50% 41-41
48% 46-49
ATS
63% 65-38
73% 83-30-1
50% 41-41
48% 46-49
TTL
70% 71-31-1
67% 76-38
100% 82-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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