DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
0-0 | Road
121
OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
0-0 | Home
119
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
THUNDER
0%
NUGGETS
--
THUNDER
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.5
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.5 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -9.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
DEN By 1-7 points
11.4%
DEN By 8-14 points
3.6%
OKC By 1-7 points
23.6%
OKC By 8-14 points
27.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
112.72
DENVER
Oklahoma City
122.24
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
Denver
115
DENVER
Oklahoma City
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Thunder
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunder
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thunder (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.5
D
Sim
Thunder (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 10, 2026
OKC @ DEN
107 - 127
Mar 9, 2026
DEN @ OKC
126 - 129
Feb 27, 2026
DEN @ OKC
121 - 127
Feb 1, 2026
OKC @ DEN
121 - 111
May 18, 2025
DEN @ OKC
93 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+34.0% more
Oklahoma City: 10.8
vs
Denver: 8.1
Blocks (L5)
+23.2% more
Oklahoma City: 6.0
vs
Denver: 4.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.9%
Oklahoma City: 79.2%
vs
Denver: 71.3%
Turnovers (L5)
+24.6% more
Denver: 12.9
vs
Oklahoma City: 9.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
112.7
121
OKC Score
122.2
119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.5 / 39.2
34.9 / 31.3
Assists
24.4 / 25.2
27.0 / 18.0
Blocks
6.0 / 4.9
11.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.5 / 50.8
42.0 / 44.2
Free Throw %
79.2 / 71.3
71.4 / 81.8
Rebounding
43.3 / 43.1
43.0 / 63.0
Steals
10.8 / 8.1
12.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
9.7 / 12.9
9.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
DEN
OKC
DEN
ML
70%
80-34
54%
57-48
48%
46-49
55%
47-39
ATS
73%
83-30-1
63%
65-38-2
48%
46-49
55%
47-39
TTL
67%
76-38
54%
56-48-1
100%
95-0
100%
86-0
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