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DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

1-0  |  Road

106
FINAL
Wed, May 7 • 9:30 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

0-1  |  Home

149
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
NUGGETS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.6
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.6 points (Oklahoma City)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

28.8%

Thunder Cover

71.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -5.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

DEN By 1-7 points

17.6%

DEN By 8-14 points

7.3%

OKC By 1-7 points

27.0%

OKC By 8-14 points

23.8%

AI Model Projected Score
114.67
DENVER
120.25
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
112
DENVER
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.6
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 234.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 OKC @ DEN 107 - 127
Mar 9, 2026 DEN @ OKC 126 - 129
Feb 27, 2026 DEN @ OKC 121 - 127
Feb 1, 2026 OKC @ DEN 121 - 111
May 18, 2025 DEN @ OKC 93 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +55.9% more
Oklahoma City: 7.7 vs Denver: 4.9
Steals (L5) +51.8% more
Oklahoma City: 11.2 vs Denver: 7.4
Assists (L5) +10.8% more
Oklahoma City: 25.3 vs Denver: 22.8
Free Throw % (L5) +1.8%
Oklahoma City: 76.6% vs Denver: 74.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 114.7 106
OKC Score 120.3 149
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.3 / 36.6 44.4 / 40.5
Assists 25.3 / 22.8 31.0 / 18.0
Blocks 7.7 / 4.9 8.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 48.6 56.2 / 37.9
Free Throw % 76.6 / 74.8 91.7 / 78.1
Rebounding 43.2 / 49.7 44.0 / 38.0
Steals 11.2 / 7.4 12.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.5 / 14.6 9.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
DEN
OKC
DEN
ML
70% 80-34
54% 57-48
48% 46-49
55% 47-39
ATS
73% 83-30-1
63% 65-38-2
48% 46-49
55% 47-39
TTL
67% 76-38
54% 56-48-1
100% 95-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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