OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
1-1 | Road
104
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
1-1 | Home
113
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
NUGGETS
100%
THUNDER
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.6
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.6 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -5.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
OKC By 1-7 points
27.0%
OKC By 8-14 points
23.8%
DEN By 1-7 points
17.6%
DEN By 8-14 points
7.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma City
124.05
OKLAHOMA CITY
Denver
118.45
DENVER
Simulated Score
Oklahoma City
110
OKLAHOMA CITY
Denver
117
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Thunder
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Thunder (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.6
D
Sim
Nuggets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 242.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 10, 2026
OKC @ DEN
107 - 127
Mar 9, 2026
DEN @ OKC
126 - 129
Feb 27, 2026
DEN @ OKC
121 - 127
Feb 1, 2026
OKC @ DEN
121 - 111
May 18, 2025
DEN @ OKC
93 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+45.5% more
Oklahoma City: 11.5
vs
Denver: 6.3
Blocks (L5)
+32.1% more
Oklahoma City: 7.8
vs
Denver: 5.3
Assists (L5)
+22.0% more
Oklahoma City: 27.2
vs
Denver: 21.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.7%
Oklahoma City: 81.7%
vs
Denver: 75.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKC Score
124.1
104
DEN Score
118.5
113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.9 / 35.7
40.0 / 25.7
Assists
21.2 / 27.2
25.0 / 24.0
Blocks
5.3 / 7.8
7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
45.0 / 48.3
45.9 / 38.5
Free Throw %
75.9 / 81.7
79.2 / 68.2
Rebounding
45.8 / 43.5
49.0 / 54.0
Steals
6.3 / 11.5
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
16.7 / 9.3
16.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
DEN
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
OKC
DEN
OKC
ML
54%
57-48
70%
80-34
55%
47-39
48%
46-49
ATS
63%
65-38-2
73%
83-30-1
55%
47-39
48%
46-49
TTL
54%
56-48-1
67%
76-38
100%
86-0
100%
95-0
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