Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Nuggets OKC @ DEN

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

1-2  |  Road

92
FINAL
Sun, May 11 • 3:30 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

2-1  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
NUGGETS
100%
THUNDER --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.5
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

67.5%

Nuggets Cover

32.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

27.3%

OKC By 8-14 points

22.4%

DEN By 1-7 points

19.3%

DEN By 8-14 points

8.6%

AI Model Projected Score
121.18
OKLAHOMA CITY
116.65
DENVER
Simulated Score
111
OKLAHOMA CITY
116
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.5
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 237.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 OKC @ DEN 107 - 127
Mar 9, 2026 DEN @ OKC 126 - 129
Feb 27, 2026 DEN @ OKC 121 - 127
Feb 1, 2026 OKC @ DEN 121 - 111
May 18, 2025 DEN @ OKC 93 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +28.2% more
Oklahoma City: 10.0 vs Denver: 7.2
Blocks (L5) +18.6% more
Oklahoma City: 7.2 vs Denver: 5.9
Assists (L5) +14.0% more
Oklahoma City: 26.1 vs Denver: 22.5
Turnovers (L5) +67.0% more
Denver: 16.5 vs Oklahoma City: 9.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 121.2 92
DEN Score 116.7 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.6 / 32.4 24.4 / 24.4
Assists 22.5 / 26.1 17.0 / 20.0
Blocks 5.9 / 7.2 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 45.0 31.3 / 35.6
Free Throw % 77.0 / 77.2 72.2 / 76.9
Rebounding 46.9 / 47.0 49.0 / 55.0
Steals 7.2 / 10.0 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 16.5 / 9.9 14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
DEN
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
OKC
DEN
OKC
ML
54% 57-48
70% 80-34
55% 47-39
48% 46-49
ATS
63% 65-38-2
73% 83-30-1
55% 47-39
48% 46-49
TTL
54% 56-48-1
67% 76-38
100% 86-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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