DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
2-2 | Road
105
OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
2-2 | Home
112
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
THUNDER
0%
NUGGETS
--
THUNDER
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.6
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.6 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -6.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
DEN By 1-7 points
15.9%
DEN By 8-14 points
6.2%
OKC By 1-7 points
26.5%
OKC By 8-14 points
25.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
110.92
DENVER
Oklahoma City
117.55
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
Denver
116
DENVER
Oklahoma City
121
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Thunder
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunder
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thunder (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.6
D
Sim
Thunder (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 228.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 10, 2026
OKC @ DEN
107 - 127
Mar 9, 2026
DEN @ OKC
126 - 129
Feb 27, 2026
DEN @ OKC
121 - 127
Feb 1, 2026
OKC @ DEN
121 - 111
May 18, 2025
DEN @ OKC
93 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+24.2% more
Oklahoma City: 9.7
vs
Denver: 7.8
Assists (L5)
+16.6% more
Oklahoma City: 24.1
vs
Denver: 20.6
Blocks (L5)
+11.4% more
Oklahoma City: 5.5
vs
Denver: 4.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.7%
Oklahoma City: 77.1%
vs
Denver: 75.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
110.9
105
OKC Score
117.6
112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.7 / 33.9
41.4 / 28.3
Assists
24.1 / 20.6
23.0 / 20.0
Blocks
5.5 / 4.9
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
41.9 / 40.7
50.0 / 41.2
Free Throw %
77.1 / 75.4
78.3 / 92.3
Rebounding
49.7 / 47.6
43.0 / 49.0
Steals
9.7 / 7.8
7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
11.3 / 15.7
14.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
DEN
OKC
DEN
ML
70%
80-34
54%
57-48
48%
46-49
55%
47-39
ATS
73%
83-30-1
63%
65-38-2
48%
46-49
55%
47-39
TTL
67%
76-38
54%
56-48-1
100%
95-0
100%
86-0
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