Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Nuggets OKC @ DEN

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

3-2  |  Road

107
FINAL
Thu, May 15 • 8:30 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

2-3  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
NUGGETS
100%
THUNDER --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

69.1%

Nuggets Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

27.2%

OKC By 8-14 points

23.0%

DEN By 1-7 points

18.6%

DEN By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
116.75
OKLAHOMA CITY
111.76
DENVER
Simulated Score
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
118
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 228.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 OKC @ DEN 107 - 127
Mar 9, 2026 DEN @ OKC 126 - 129
Feb 27, 2026 DEN @ OKC 121 - 127
Feb 1, 2026 OKC @ DEN 121 - 111
May 18, 2025 DEN @ OKC 93 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +24.3% more
Oklahoma City: 5.6 vs Denver: 4.3
Assists (L5) +13.9% more
Oklahoma City: 23.7 vs Denver: 20.4
Field Goal % (L5) +3.8%
Oklahoma City: 44.6% vs Denver: 40.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
Oklahoma City: 33.6% vs Denver: 32.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 116.8 107
DEN Score 111.8 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.0 / 33.6 37.5 / 27.5
Assists 20.4 / 23.7 27.0 / 25.0
Blocks 4.3 / 5.6 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 40.8 / 44.6 46.5 / 46.7
Free Throw % 81.0 / 77.5 84.4 / 62.5
Rebounding 48.1 / 47.4 52.0 / 40.0
Steals 8.5 / 8.8 8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 15.8 / 12.2 16.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
DEN
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
OKC
DEN
OKC
ML
54% 57-48
70% 80-34
55% 47-39
48% 46-49
ATS
63% 65-38-2
73% 83-30-1
55% 47-39
48% 46-49
TTL
54% 56-48-1
67% 76-38
100% 86-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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