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DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

3-3  |  Road

93
FINAL
Sun, May 18 • 3:30 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

3-3  |  Home

125
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
NUGGETS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.8
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.8 points (Oklahoma City)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

16.4%

Thunder Cover

83.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -9.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

DEN By 1-7 points

11.0%

DEN By 8-14 points

3.4%

OKC By 1-7 points

23.3%

OKC By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
109.32
DENVER
119.1
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
116
DENVER
119
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.8
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 228.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 OKC @ DEN 107 - 127
Mar 9, 2026 DEN @ OKC 126 - 129
Feb 27, 2026 DEN @ OKC 121 - 127
Feb 1, 2026 OKC @ DEN 121 - 111
May 18, 2025 DEN @ OKC 93 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +13.9% more
Oklahoma City: 9.5 vs Denver: 8.4
Field Goal % (L5) +2.6%
Oklahoma City: 45.3% vs Denver: 42.7%
Turnovers (L5) +25.7% more
Denver: 15.9 vs Oklahoma City: 11.8
Free Throw % (L5) +9.7%
Denver: 82.2% vs Oklahoma City: 72.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 109.3 93
OKC Score 119.1 125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.6 / 33.8 30.8 / 22.7
Assists 24.1 / 22.6 28.0 / 20.0
Blocks 5.1 / 4.9 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 42.7 49.0 / 39.3
Free Throw % 72.5 / 82.2 79.2 / 77.3
Rebounding 45.0 / 49.4 44.0 / 47.0
Steals 9.5 / 8.4 16.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 15.9 10.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
DEN
OKC
DEN
ML
70% 80-34
54% 57-48
48% 46-49
55% 47-39
ATS
73% 83-30-1
63% 65-38-2
48% 46-49
55% 47-39
TTL
67% 76-38
54% 56-48-1
100% 95-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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