VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
30-14-4 | Road
3
DALLAS
STARSDAL
29-17-1 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Adin Hill
#33 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Jake Oettinger
#29 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill | None-None | 4.11 | 0.852 | -- |
| Jake Oettinger | None-None | 3.00 | 0.857 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.11
GAA
Ldr 3.00
0.852
Save %
Ldr 0.857
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
56%
STARS
44%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
--
STARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DAL -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
VGK By 1 goal
15.0%
VGK By 2-3 goals
13.7%
DAL By 1 goal
19.1%
DAL By 2-3 goals
24.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Vegas
2.49
VEGAS
Dallas
2.98
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Vegas
2
VEGAS
Dallas
4
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Stars
Win
44% Win Prob
D
Sim
Stars
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Stars (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.5
B
Sim
Stars (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.5
B
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 22, 2026
VGK @ DAL
3 - 2
Mar 10, 2026
VGK @ DAL
1 - 2
Jan 29, 2026
DAL @ VGK
5 - 4
Jan 28, 2025
DAL @ VGK
4 - 3
Jan 24, 2025
VGK @ DAL
3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Faceoff % (L5)
+8.3%
Dallas: 54.6%
vs
Vegas: 46.3%
Takeaways (L5)
+18.5% more
Vegas: 5.6
vs
Dallas: 4.5
Shots on Goal (L5)
+17.0% more
Vegas: 31.6
vs
Dallas: 26.2
Hits (L5)
+9.2% more
Vegas: 19.9
vs
Dallas: 18.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VGK Score
2.5
3
DAL Score
3.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.8 / 15.7
17.0 / 24.0
Faceoff %
54.6 / 46.3
48.2 / 51.8
Hits
18.1 / 19.9
21.0 / 18.0
Power Play %
36.6 / 43.4
50.0 / 66.7
Shots on Goal
26.2 / 31.6
27.0 / 21.0
Takeaways
4.5 / 5.6
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
VGK
DAL
VGK
ML
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
ATS
0%
0-3
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
TTL
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
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