DALLAS
STARSDAL
31-17-1 | Road
4
VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
31-15-4 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jake Oettinger
#29 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Adin Hill
#33 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger | None-None | 2.98 | 0.893 | -- |
| Adin Hill | None-None | 3.98 | 0.857 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.98 Ldr
GAA
3.98
0.893 Ldr
Save %
0.857
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
47%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
53%
STARS
--
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
68%
Under 0
32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Vegas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around VGK -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VGK)
DAL By 1 goal
16.3%
DAL By 2-3 goals
15.9%
VGK By 1 goal
18.5%
VGK By 2-3 goals
21.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
2.71
DALLAS
Vegas
2.97
VEGAS
Simulated Score
Dallas
3
DALLAS
Vegas
4
VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Golden Knights
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Knights
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Golden Knights (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.3
B
Sim
Golden Knights (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.7
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 22, 2026
VGK @ DAL
3 - 2
Mar 10, 2026
VGK @ DAL
1 - 2
Jan 29, 2026
DAL @ VGK
5 - 4
Jan 28, 2025
DAL @ VGK
4 - 3
Jan 24, 2025
VGK @ DAL
3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+20.8% more
Vegas: 4.6
vs
Dallas: 3.8
Shots on Goal (L5)
+14.1% more
Vegas: 27.4
vs
Dallas: 24.0
Hits (L5)
+11.1% more
Dallas: 19.7
vs
Vegas: 17.5
Power Play % (L5)
+4.4%
Dallas: 38.5%
vs
Vegas: 34.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
2.7
4
VGK Score
3.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.6 / 17.1
15.0 / 23.0
Faceoff %
49.5 / 49.9
52.3 / 47.7
Hits
17.5 / 19.7
27.0 / 15.0
Power Play %
34.1 / 38.5
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
27.4 / 24.0
28.0 / 28.0
Takeaways
4.6 / 3.8
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VGK
DAL
VGK
DAL
ML
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
ATS
50%
2-2
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
TTL
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
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