VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
31-16-6 | Road
1
NEW YORK
ISLANDERSNYI
24-21-7 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Marc Gatcomb
#17 | Center@
GOALTENDER
Ilya Sorokin
#30 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Gatcomb | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Ilya Sorokin | None-None | 1.00 | 0.971 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
1.00
--
Save %
0.971
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
63%
ISLANDERS
37%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
--
ISLANDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NYI -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYI)
VGK By 1 goal
14.4%
VGK By 2-3 goals
12.7%
NYI By 1 goal
19.4%
NYI By 2-3 goals
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Vegas
2.8
VEGAS
New York
3.4
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Vegas
2
VEGAS
New York
3
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Islanders
Win
37% Win Prob
D
Sim
Islanders
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Islanders (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.6
B
Sim
Islanders (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 9, 2025
VGK @ NYI
4 - 5
Nov 13, 2025
NYI @ VGK
4 - 3
Feb 4, 2025
VGK @ NYI
1 - 2
Jan 9, 2025
NYI @ VGK
4 - 0
Jan 23, 2024
VGK @ NYI
3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+42.6% more
New York: 19.3
vs
Vegas: 13.6
Hits (L5)
+17.9% more
New York: 22.1
vs
Vegas: 18.8
Faceoff % (L5)
+7.0%
New York: 56.9%
vs
Vegas: 49.9%
Power Play % (L5)
+37.6%
Vegas: 50.9%
vs
New York: 13.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VGK Score
2.8
1
NYI Score
3.4
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
19.3 / 13.6
11.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
56.9 / 49.9
49.1 / 50.9
Hits
22.1 / 18.8
26.0 / 21.0
Power Play %
1322.0 / 5085.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
31.7 / 30.0
14.0 / 34.0
Takeaways
5.5 / 5.5
8.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYI
VGK
NYI
VGK
ML
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
TTL
100%
2-0-1
25%
1-3
100%
2-0-1
50%
2-2
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