PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
24-30-10 | Road
0
VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
37-18-6 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Kaedan Korczak
#6 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Alex Pietrangelo
#7 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaedan Korczak | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Alex Pietrangelo | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
--
--
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
28%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
72%
PENGUINS
--
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Vegas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around VGK -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VGK)
PIT By 1 goal
11.6%
PIT By 2-3 goals
8.8%
VGK By 1 goal
19.7%
VGK By 2-3 goals
30.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
2.21
PITTSBURGH
Vegas
3.29
VEGAS
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Vegas
4
VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Golden Knights
Win
72% Win Prob
B
Sim
Golden Knights
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Golden Knights (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.1
C
Sim
Golden Knights (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.5
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
PIT @ VGK
2 - 6
Mar 1, 2026
VGK @ PIT
0 - 5
Mar 11, 2025
VGK @ PIT
2 - 3
Mar 7, 2025
PIT @ VGK
0 - 4
Jan 20, 2024
PIT @ VGK
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+23.2% more
Vegas: 20.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 16.5
Blocked Shots (L5)
+21.2% more
Vegas: 13.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 10.9
Power Play % (L5)
+21.0%
Vegas: 36.3%
vs
Pittsburgh: 15.3%
Takeaways (L5)
+38.0% more
Pittsburgh: 5.2
vs
Vegas: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
2.2
0
VGK Score
3.3
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.3 / 10.9
13.0 / 9.0
Faceoff %
46.2 / 54.2
44.2 / 55.8
Hits
20.3 / 16.5
15.0 / 26.0
Power Play %
3627.0 / 1528.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
27.8 / 32.0
27.0 / 22.0
Takeaways
3.3 / 5.2
0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VGK
PIT
VGK
PIT
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
ATS
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
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