VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
38-19-6 | Road
2
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
25-31-10 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Alex Pietrangelo
#7 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Kris Letang
#58 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pietrangelo | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Kris Letang | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
--
--
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
71%
PENGUINS
29%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Vegas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around VGK -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VGK)
VGK By 1 goal
19.7%
VGK By 2-3 goals
27.7%
PIT By 1 goal
13.2%
PIT By 2-3 goals
10.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Vegas
3.18
VEGAS
Pittsburgh
2.36
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Vegas
3
VEGAS
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Golden Knights
Loss
71% Win Prob
B
Sim
Penguins
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Golden Knights (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.8
D
Sim
Penguins (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.5
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
PIT @ VGK
2 - 6
Mar 1, 2026
VGK @ PIT
0 - 5
Mar 11, 2025
VGK @ PIT
2 - 3
Mar 7, 2025
PIT @ VGK
0 - 4
Jan 20, 2024
PIT @ VGK
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+26.0%
Vegas: 49.5%
vs
Pittsburgh: 23.5%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+9.0% more
Vegas: 29.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 26.4
Takeaways (L5)
+147.4% more
Pittsburgh: 5.2
vs
Vegas: 2.1
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.1%
Pittsburgh: 53.9%
vs
Vegas: 50.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VGK Score
3.2
2
PIT Score
2.4
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.9 / 14.8
22.0 / 9.0
Faceoff %
53.9 / 50.8
47.5 / 52.5
Hits
18.8 / 18.0
16.0 / 10.0
Power Play %
23.5 / 49.5
25.0 / 100.0
Shots on Goal
26.4 / 29.0
17.0 / 37.0
Takeaways
5.2 / 2.1
4.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
VGK
PIT
VGK
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
ATS
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
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