VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
39-19-7 | Road
3
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
25-33-6 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Adin Hill
#33 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill | None-None | 2.77 | 0.919 | -- |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | None-None | 2.83 | 0.842 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.77 Ldr
GAA
2.83
0.919 Ldr
Save %
0.842
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
73%
SABRES
27%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
--
SABRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BUF -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
VGK By 1 goal
10.7%
VGK By 2-3 goals
7.6%
BUF By 1 goal
19.6%
BUF By 2-3 goals
31.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Vegas
2.86
VEGAS
Buffalo
4.1
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
Vegas
2
VEGAS
Buffalo
4
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Sabres
Win
27% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sabres
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Sabres (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.2
D
Sim
Sabres (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 17, 2026
BUF @ VGK
2 - 0
Mar 3, 2026
VGK @ BUF
2 - 3
Mar 15, 2025
VGK @ BUF
3 - 4
Jan 4, 2025
BUF @ VGK
1 - 3
Mar 2, 2024
VGK @ BUF
2 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+37.7% more
Buffalo: 19.1
vs
Vegas: 13.9
Faceoff % (L5)
+1.8%
Buffalo: 49.6%
vs
Vegas: 47.8%
Power Play % (L5)
+37.2%
Vegas: 55.3%
vs
Buffalo: 18.1%
Takeaways (L5)
+23.6% more
Vegas: 4.8
vs
Buffalo: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VGK Score
2.9
3
BUF Score
4.1
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.3 / 15.6
13.0 / 14.0
Faceoff %
49.6 / 47.8
71.6 / 28.4
Hits
19.1 / 13.9
36.0 / 22.0
Power Play %
18.1 / 55.3
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
25.5 / 30.8
37.0 / 19.0
Takeaways
3.7 / 4.8
4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
VGK
BUF
VGK
ML
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
TTL
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
Contextual Game News
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