Home / NHL Projections NHL / Golden Knights @ Red Wings VGK @ DET

VEGAS

GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK

39-19-8  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sun, Mar 16 • 1:00 PM ET
Little Caesars Arena
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

RED WINGSDET

31-29-6  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Alex Pietrangelo
GOALTENDER

Alex Pietrangelo

#7 | Defense
@
Moritz Seider
GOALTENDER

Moritz Seider

#53 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Alex Pietrangelo None-None -- -- --
Moritz Seider None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA --
-- Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
66%
📊
RED WINGS
34%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS --
RED WINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 47%
Under 0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Detroit)
Golden KnightsVGK (-3.5) 0 Red WingsDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Knights Cover

41.9%

Red Wings Cover

58.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DET -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

VGK By 1 goal

15.5%

VGK By 2-3 goals

14.4%

DET By 1 goal

18.9%

DET By 2-3 goals

23.2%

AI Model Projected Score
2.88
VEGAS
3.29
DETROIT
Simulated Score
2
VEGAS
4
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Wings Win
34% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Wings Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Wings (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -0.4
D
Sim Red Wings (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 VGK @ DET 4 - 3
Nov 4, 2025 DET @ VGK 0 - 1
Mar 22, 2025 DET @ VGK 3 - 6
Mar 16, 2025 VGK @ DET 0 - 3
Mar 9, 2024 DET @ VGK 3 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +39.4% more
Detroit: 21.0 vs Vegas: 15.1
Hits (L5) +28.5% more
Detroit: 21.3 vs Vegas: 16.6
Shots on Goal (L5) +15.4% more
Detroit: 31.0 vs Vegas: 26.9
Power Play % (L5) +19.1%
Vegas: 36.9% vs Detroit: 17.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VGK Score 2.9 0
DET Score 3.3 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 21.0 / 15.1 16.0 / 10.0
Faceoff % 39.7 / 41.3 46.0 / 54.0
Hits 21.3 / 16.6 15.0 / 21.0
Power Play % 1775.0 / 3687.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 31.0 / 26.9 27.0 / 18.0
Takeaways 4.2 / 5.2 5.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
VGK
DET
VGK
ML
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
TTL
0% 0-3
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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