VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
45-22-8 | Road
3
CALGARY
FLAMESCGY
36-27-12 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Rasmus Andersson
#4 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Dustin Wolf
#32 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Andersson | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Dustin Wolf | None-None | 2.79 | 0.912 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
2.79
--
Save %
0.912
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
61%
FLAMES
39%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
--
FLAMES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
56%
Under 0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Vegas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around VGK -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VGK)
VGK By 1 goal
19.2%
VGK By 2-3 goals
24.5%
CGY By 1 goal
14.8%
CGY By 2-3 goals
13.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Vegas
3.26
VEGAS
Calgary
2.73
CALGARY
Simulated Score
Vegas
2
VEGAS
Calgary
3
CALGARY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Golden Knights
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim
Flames
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Golden Knights (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.5
D
Sim
Flames (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 2, 2026
CGY @ VGK
3 - 6
Dec 20, 2025
VGK @ CGY
3 - 6
Oct 18, 2025
CGY @ VGK
1 - 6
Oct 14, 2025
VGK @ CGY
4 - 2
Apr 15, 2025
VGK @ CGY
4 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+16.4%
Vegas: 32.0%
vs
Calgary: 15.5%
Faceoff % (L5)
+2.7%
Vegas: 50.1%
vs
Calgary: 47.4%
Takeaways (L5)
+69.2% more
Calgary: 5.2
vs
Vegas: 3.1
Hits (L5)
+36.9% more
Calgary: 25.8
vs
Vegas: 18.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VGK Score
3.3
3
CGY Score
2.7
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.9 / 12.0
11.0 / 21.0
Faceoff %
47.4 / 50.1
50.0 / 50.0
Hits
25.8 / 18.9
38.0 / 14.0
Power Play %
1553.0 / 3197.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
33.1 / 26.5
23.0 / 34.0
Takeaways
5.2 / 3.1
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CGY
VGK
CGY
VGK
ML
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
ATS
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
TTL
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
0%
0-3
50%
2-2
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