VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
49-22-9 | Road
4
CALGARY
FLAMESCGY
39-27-14 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Rasmus Andersson
#4 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Dustin Wolf
#32 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Andersson | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Dustin Wolf | None-None | 3.69 | 0.905 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
3.69
--
Save %
0.905
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
61%
FLAMES
39%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
--
FLAMES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
80%
Under 0
20%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Vegas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around VGK -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VGK)
VGK By 1 goal
18.9%
VGK By 2-3 goals
22.9%
CGY By 1 goal
15.6%
CGY By 2-3 goals
14.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Vegas
2.73
VEGAS
Calgary
2.34
CALGARY
Simulated Score
Vegas
2
VEGAS
Calgary
4
CALGARY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Golden Knights
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Sim
Flames
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Golden Knights (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.4
B
Sim
Flames (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.1
A
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 2, 2026
CGY @ VGK
3 - 6
Dec 20, 2025
VGK @ CGY
3 - 6
Oct 18, 2025
CGY @ VGK
1 - 6
Oct 14, 2025
VGK @ CGY
4 - 2
Apr 15, 2025
VGK @ CGY
4 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.4%
Vegas: 53.4%
vs
Calgary: 50.0%
Hits (L5)
+114.5% more
Calgary: 27.5
vs
Vegas: 12.8
Takeaways (L5)
+28.2% more
Calgary: 4.7
vs
Vegas: 3.7
Shots on Goal (L5)
+16.1% more
Calgary: 31.9
vs
Vegas: 27.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VGK Score
2.7
4
CGY Score
2.3
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.7 / 17.0
19.0 / 19.0
Faceoff %
50.0 / 53.4
45.9 / 54.1
Hits
27.5 / 12.8
22.0 / 13.0
Power Play %
23.0 / 15.3
100.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
31.9 / 27.5
28.0 / 42.0
Takeaways
4.7 / 3.7
7.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CGY
VGK
CGY
VGK
ML
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
ATS
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
TTL
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
0%
0-3
50%
2-2
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