VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
0-0-0 | Road
4
MINNESOTA
WILDMIN
0-0-0 | Home
3
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
50%
WILD
50%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
--
WILD
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Vegas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around VGK -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VGK)
VGK By 1 goal
18.7%
VGK By 2-3 goals
22.2%
MIN By 1 goal
15.9%
MIN By 2-3 goals
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Vegas
2.59
VEGAS
Minnesota
2.27
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Vegas
2
VEGAS
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Golden Knights
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wild
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Golden Knights (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.3
A
Sim
Wild (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 4.9
B
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
MIN @ VGK
4 - 2
Dec 29, 2025
MIN @ VGK
5 - 2
Nov 16, 2025
VGK @ MIN
2 - 3
May 1, 2025
VGK @ MIN
3 - 2
Apr 29, 2025
MIN @ VGK
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+13.2% more
Vegas: 31.2
vs
Minnesota: 27.1
Faceoff % (L5)
+9.2%
Vegas: 55.1%
vs
Minnesota: 45.9%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+52.8% more
Minnesota: 21.2
vs
Vegas: 13.9
Hits (L5)
+11.1% more
Minnesota: 32.2
vs
Vegas: 29.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VGK Score
2.6
4
MIN Score
2.3
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
21.2 / 13.9
23.0 / 23.0
Faceoff %
45.9 / 55.1
50.7 / 49.3
Hits
32.2 / 29.0
28.0 / 34.0
Power Play %
20.0 / 16.8
0.0 / 40.0
Shots on Goal
27.1 / 31.2
32.0 / 46.0
Takeaways
3.9 / 3.7
6.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
VGK
MIN
VGK
ML
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
ATS
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
TTL
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
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