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BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

13-4  |  Road

29
FINAL
Sun, Jan 26 • 6:30 PM ET
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

15-2  |  Home

32
Key Game
Mike Danna
KEY GAME

Mike Danna

#51 | Defensive End
@
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
Player
Mike Danna None-None
Matt Araiza None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BILLS
30%
📊
CHIEFS
70%
BILLS --
CHIEFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Kansas City)
BillsBUF (-3.5) 0 ChiefsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bills Cover

49.6%

Chiefs Cover

50.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KC -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

BUF By 1-6 points

16.4%

BUF By 7-13 points

15.3%

KC By 1-6 points

16.5%

KC By 7-13 points

15.5%

AI Model Projected Score
24.12
BUFFALO
24.25
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
24
BUFFALO
27
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Chiefs Win
70% Win Prob
C
Sim Chiefs Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chiefs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.1
D
Sim Chiefs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 48.4
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 2, 2025 KC @ BUF 21 - 28
Jan 26, 2025 BUF @ KC 29 - 32
Nov 17, 2024 KC @ BUF 21 - 30
Jan 21, 2024 KC @ BUF 27 - 24
Dec 10, 2023 BUF @ KC 20 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +57.3% more
Buffalo: 156.4 vs Kansas City: 66.8
First Downs (L5) +29.7% more
Buffalo: 21.6 vs Kansas City: 15.2
Total Yards (L5) +28.3% more
Buffalo: 349.2 vs Kansas City: 250.2
Yards Per Play (L5) +17.1% more
Buffalo: 5.4 vs Kansas City: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 24.1 29
KC Score 24.3 32
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.2 / 21.6 28.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 183.4 / 192.8 233.0 / 227.0
Rushing Yards 66.8 / 156.4 135.0 / 147.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.6 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 250.2 / 349.2 368.0 / 374.0
Turnovers 0.1 / 0.1 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.5 / 5.4 5.8 / 5.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
KC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
BUF
KC
BUF
ML
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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