KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
28-24 | Road
4
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
28-22 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Steven Cruz
#64 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Zebby Matthews
#52 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Cruz | None-None | 1.62 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Zebby Matthews | None-None | 7.71 | -- | 4.0 | 9 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.62 Ldr
ERA
7.71
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 9
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
48%
TWINS
52%
ROYALS
--
TWINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
30%
Under 0
70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
KC By 1-2 runs
17.2%
KC By 3-4 runs
11.7%
MIN By 1-2 runs
19.3%
MIN By 3-4 runs
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
3.92
KANSAS CITY
Minnesota
4.55
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Kansas City
3
KANSAS CITY
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Twins
Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Twins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
C
Sim
Twins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
MIN @ KC
4 - 3
Aug 5, 2026
MIN @ KC
1 - 2
Aug 4, 2026
MIN @ KC
2 - 8
Jul 30, 2026
KC @ MIN
3 - 4
Jul 29, 2026
KC @ MIN
4 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Minnesota
MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.718
OPS
▲
.720
170
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+65.0% more
Minnesota: 1.0
vs
Kansas City: 0.4
Home Runs (Season)
+10.0% more
Minnesota: 187.0
vs
Kansas City: 170.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+7.0% more
Minnesota: 4.6
vs
Kansas City: 4.3
Errors (L5)
+64.0% more
Kansas City: 0.7
vs
Minnesota: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
3.9
4
MIN Score
4.6
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.3 / 9.8
9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.4
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 8.4
18.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 13.4
15.0 / 12.0
Walks
2.2 / 2.6
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
KC
MIN
KC
ML
52%
84-78
55%
89-72
50%
80-81
56%
90-70
ATS
59%
95-67
57%
91-70
59%
95-66
58%
93-67
TTL
51%
78-75-9
58%
90-64-7
53%
80-72-9
54%
83-70-7
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