Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Nationals SF @ WSH

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

30-21  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, May 24 • 4:05 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

23-28  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Willy Adames
STARTING PITCHER

Willy Adames

#2 | Shortstop
@
Jake Irvin
STARTING PITCHER

Jake Irvin

#27 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Willy Adames None-None -- -- -- --
Jake Irvin None-None 3.42 -- 8.0 7
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 3.42
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 8.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 7
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
63%
📊
NATIONALS
37%
GIANTS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (San Francisco)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

62.6%

Nationals Cover

37.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SF By 3-4 runs

17.0%

WSH By 1-2 runs

15.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

9.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4.84
SAN FRANCISCO
3.55
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
4
SAN FRANCISCO
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Giants Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Nationals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Giants (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.3
B
Sim Nationals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.4
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 10, 2026 WSH @ SF 10 - 11
Jun 9, 2026 WSH @ SF 6 - 3
Jun 8, 2026 WSH @ SF 4 - 3
Apr 19, 2026 SF @ WSH 0 - 3
Apr 18, 2026 SF @ WSH 7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.706
OPS
▲ .744
178
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +11.0% more
San Francisco: 0.9 vs Washington: 0.8
Walks (L5) +72.6% more
Washington: 3.6 vs San Francisco: 2.1
Strikeouts (L5) +68.8% more
Washington: 9.5 vs San Francisco: 5.6
Runs per Game (Season) +22.8% more
Washington: 5.1 vs San Francisco: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 4.8 0
WSH Score 3.6 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.4 / 7.4 8.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 5.6 8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 13.7 / 11.3 12.0 / 3.0
Walks 3.6 / 2.1 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
SF
WSH
SF
ML
57% 92-69
49% 79-81
54% 87-74
53% 85-75
ATS
58% 93-68
62% 100-60
57% 91-70
52% 83-77
TTL
50% 77-78-6
55% 82-68-10
42% 65-90-6
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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