SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
29-21 | Road
1
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
26-25 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Woo
#22 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Hader
#71 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Woo | None-None | 2.69 | -- | 6.0 | 5 |
| Josh Hader | None-None | 1.57 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.69
ERA
Ldr 1.57
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
57%
ASTROS
43%
MARINERS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
44%
Under 0
56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
SEA By 1-2 runs
17.5%
SEA By 3-4 runs
12.2%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.1%
HOU By 3-4 runs
14.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
4.41
SEATTLE
Houston
4.88
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Win
43% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
A
Sim
Astros (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 23, 2026
HOU @ SEA
5 - 6
Sep 22, 2026
HOU @ SEA
7 - 0
Aug 16, 2026
SEA @ HOU
3 - 2
Aug 15, 2026
SEA @ HOU
10 - 5
Aug 14, 2026
SEA @ HOU
7 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.10
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.233
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.379
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.693
▲
OPS
.582
182
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+172.0% more
Houston: 4.3
vs
Seattle: 1.6
Errors (L5)
+64.0% more
Houston: 0.8
vs
Seattle: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+63.5% more
Houston: 10.1
vs
Seattle: 6.2
Hits (L5)
+17.9% more
Houston: 10.0
vs
Seattle: 8.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
4.4
1
HOU Score
4.9
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.0 / 8.5
12.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.9
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.1 / 6.2
11.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
15.9 / 15.5
12.0 / 7.0
Walks
4.3 / 1.6
5.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
SEA
HOU
SEA
ML
50%
81-82
50%
81-81
47%
77-87
52%
85-77
ATS
56%
91-72
60%
98-64
55%
90-74
59%
95-67
TTL
45%
70-84-9
56%
85-67-10
45%
69-86-9
53%
81-71-10
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