Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Mets LAD @ NYM

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

32-19  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, May 24 • 7:15 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

30-21  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Edwin Diaz
STARTING PITCHER

Edwin Diaz

#3 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brett Baty
STARTING PITCHER

Brett Baty

#7 | Third Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Edwin Diaz None-None 2.53 -- 1.1 3
Brett Baty None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.53 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
3 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
54%
📊
METS
46%
DODGERS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

68.0%

Mets Cover

32.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

LAD By 3-4 runs

18.2%

NYM By 1-2 runs

13.9%

NYM By 3-4 runs

8.2%

AI Model Projected Score
6.01
LOS ANGELES
4.14
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
3
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.9
B
Sim Dodgers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 26, 2026 LAD @ NYM 3 - 8
Jul 25, 2026 LAD @ NYM 4 - 3
Jul 24, 2026 LAD @ NYM 4 - 2
Apr 15, 2026 NYM @ LAD 2 - 8
Apr 14, 2026 NYM @ LAD 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.762 ▲
OPS
.705
204
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +26.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.9 vs New York: 0.6
Hits (L5) +13.4% more
Los Angeles: 8.1 vs New York: 7.0
Total Bases (L5) +13.2% more
Los Angeles: 12.1 vs New York: 10.5
Runs per Game (Season) +12.8% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs New York: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 6.0 2
NYM Score 4.1 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.0 / 8.1 11.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.2 / 10.6 10.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 10.5 / 12.1 13.0 / 6.0
Walks 4.7 / 4.1 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
NYM Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
LAD
NYM
LAD
ML
50% 79-80
56% 92-73
48% 76-83
48% 79-87
ATS
58% 93-66
59% 98-67
49% 78-81
43% 72-94
TTL
55% 80-66-13
48% 77-82-6
51% 74-72-13
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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