Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Rangers BOS @ TEX

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

0-0  |  Road

5
FINAL
Thu, Mar 27 • 4:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

0-0  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Justin Slaten

#63 | Relief Pitcher
@
Nathan Eovaldi
STARTING PITCHER

Nathan Eovaldi

#17 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Justin Slaten None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
Nathan Eovaldi None-None 3.00 -- 6.0 9
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 3.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 9
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
50%
📊
RANGERS
50%
RED SOX --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 53%
Under 0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Boston)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

58.8%

Rangers Cover

41.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.5%

BOS By 3-4 runs

16.0%

TEX By 1-2 runs

16.6%

TEX By 3-4 runs

10.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.39
BOSTON
3.5
TEXAS
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
6
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Sox (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
C
Sim Rangers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 BOS @ TEX 4 - 3
Sep 16, 2026 BOS @ TEX 3 - 7
Sep 15, 2026 BOS @ TEX 2 - 4
Jun 14, 2026 TEX @ BOS 6 - 4
Jun 13, 2026 TEX @ BOS 3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Texas TEX
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.15
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .242
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .396
.409
OPS
▲ .713
2
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +9.5% more
Boston: 2.7 vs Texas: 2.5
Home Runs (Season) +9050.0% more
Texas: 183.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +315.0% more
Texas: 4.2 vs Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +168.0% more
Texas: 2.0 vs Boston: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 4.4 5
TEX Score 3.5 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.2 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.4 / 6.6 7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 0.3 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 6.7 13.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 17.8 / 9.4 8.0 / 12.0
Walks 2.5 / 2.7 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
BOS
TEX
BOS
ML
53% 86-76
50% 80-80
57% 91-70
47% 76-87
ATS
57% 92-70
58% 93-67
61% 98-63
48% 79-84
TTL
53% 78-70-14
46% 72-83-5
55% 81-66-14
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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