ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
0-0 | Road
4
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
0-0 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Holmes
#66 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Wandy Peralta
#58 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Holmes | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Wandy Peralta | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00
ERA
0.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
50%
PADRES
50%
BRAVES
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.0%
ATL By 3-4 runs
14.6%
SD By 1-2 runs
17.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
12.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
4.87
ATLANTA
San Diego
4.5
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
San Diego
6
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
C
Sim
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 23, 2026
SD @ ATL
5 - 6
Jul 22, 2026
SD @ ATL
6 - 7
Jul 21, 2026
SD @ ATL
8 - 3
Jul 20, 2026
SD @ ATL
2 - 3
Jun 24, 2026
ATL @ SD
2 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
San Diego
SD
1
Games Played
▲
2
5.00
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.324
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.433
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.757
OPS
▲
.925
1
Home Runs
▲
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+30.4% more
Atlanta: 1.4
vs
San Diego: 1.0
Hits (L5)
+21.0% more
Atlanta: 7.6
vs
San Diego: 6.0
Total Bases (L5)
+19.3% more
Atlanta: 12.8
vs
San Diego: 10.3
Errors (L5)
+26.0% more
San Diego: 0.3
vs
Atlanta: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
4.9
4
SD Score
4.5
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.1
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.0 / 7.6
10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.4
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 7.6
10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
10.3 / 12.8
15.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.0 / 1.8
6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
SD
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
ATL
SD
ATL
ML
51%
85-83
46%
77-90
51%
85-82
54%
90-78
ATS
54%
91-77
57%
96-71
55%
92-75
52%
87-81
TTL
51%
82-80-6
53%
83-73-11
54%
86-74-6
49%
76-80-11
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