PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
0-0 | Road
4
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
0-0 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mitch Keller
#23 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Phillips
#30 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | None-None | 1.50 | -- | 6.0 | 4 |
| Tyler Phillips | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 3.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.50
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
3.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
50%
MARLINS
50%
PIRATES
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
15.5%
MIA By 1-2 runs
17.1%
MIA By 3-4 runs
11.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
4.09
PITTSBURGH
Miami
3.41
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Miami
4
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pirates
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pirates (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
B
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
PIT @ MIA
13 - 1
Aug 12, 2026
PIT @ MIA
2 - 8
Aug 11, 2026
PIT @ MIA
0 - 2
Jun 14, 2026
MIA @ PIT
4 - 2
Jun 13, 2026
MIA @ PIT
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.249
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.734
▲
OPS
.727
186
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+58.9% more
Pittsburgh: 1.5
vs
Miami: 0.6
Errors (L5)
+35.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.8
vs
Miami: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+13.5% more
Pittsburgh: 9.9
vs
Miami: 8.6
Walks (L5)
+11.1% more
Pittsburgh: 5.6
vs
Miami: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
4.1
4
MIA Score
3.4
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.8
4.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.8 / 5.4
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.5
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 9.9
6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
14.6 / 11.3
11.0 / 11.0
Walks
5.0 / 5.6
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
PIT
MIA
PIT
ML
48%
78-84
52%
82-77
55%
88-72
52%
85-78
ATS
56%
91-71
54%
86-73
54%
86-74
50%
81-82
TTL
56%
88-69-5
47%
72-81-6
53%
82-73-5
50%
79-78-6
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