Home / MLB Projections MLB / Pirates @ Marlins PIT @ MIA

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

0-0  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, Mar 30 • 1:40 PM ET
loanDepot park
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

0-0  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Jared Triolo
STARTING PITCHER

Jared Triolo

#19 | Shortstop
@
Calvin Faucher
STARTING PITCHER

Calvin Faucher

#53 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jared Triolo None-None -- -- -- --
Calvin Faucher None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 0.00
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
50%
📊
MARLINS
50%
PIRATES --
MARLINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Pittsburgh)
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 MarlinsMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

53.2%

Marlins Cover

46.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1-2 runs

18.9%

PIT By 3-4 runs

14.5%

MIA By 1-2 runs

17.8%

MIA By 3-4 runs

12.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.95
PITTSBURGH
3.63
MIAMI
Simulated Score
3
PITTSBURGH
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pirates Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Marlins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pirates (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
C
Sim Marlins (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.6
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 13, 2026 PIT @ MIA 13 - 1
Aug 12, 2026 PIT @ MIA 2 - 8
Aug 11, 2026 PIT @ MIA 0 - 2
Jun 14, 2026 MIA @ PIT 4 - 2
Jun 13, 2026 MIA @ PIT 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Miami MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.249
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.404 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.734 ▲
OPS
.727
186 ▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +39.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.9 vs Miami: 0.5
Home Runs (Season) +9.7% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0 vs Miami: 168.0
Runs per Game (Season) +6.8% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7 vs Miami: 4.4
OPS (Season) +0.7%
Pittsburgh: 73.4% vs Miami: 72.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 4.0 2
MIA Score 3.6 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.4 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.2 / 7.0 7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.5 / 9.0 9.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 14.9 / 10.8 11.0 / 9.0
Walks 6.0 / 4.2 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
PIT
MIA
PIT
ML
48% 78-84
52% 82-77
55% 88-72
52% 85-78
ATS
56% 91-71
54% 86-73
54% 86-74
50% 81-82
TTL
56% 88-69-5
47% 72-81-6
53% 82-73-5
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
si 1 hour, 14 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 1 hour, 24 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 1 hour, 31 minutes ago
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
players_bio 7 hours, 9 minutes ago
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
yahoo 7 hours, 19 minutes ago