BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
0-0 | Road
2
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
0-0 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Justin Slaten
#63 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob deGrom
#48 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Slaten | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Jacob deGrom | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 5.0 | 6 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00
ERA
0.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
50%
RANGERS
50%
RED SOX
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.0%
BOS By 3-4 runs
14.6%
TEX By 1-2 runs
17.7%
TEX By 3-4 runs
12.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
3.86
BOSTON
Texas
3.49
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
Texas
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
C
Sim
Rangers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.4
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
BOS @ TEX
4 - 3
Sep 16, 2026
BOS @ TEX
3 - 7
Sep 15, 2026
BOS @ TEX
2 - 4
Jun 14, 2026
TEX @ BOS
6 - 4
Jun 13, 2026
TEX @ BOS
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Texas
TEX
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.15
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.242
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.409
OPS
▲
.713
2
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+23.0% more
Boston: 0.6
vs
Texas: 0.4
Home Runs (Season)
+9050.0% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+315.0% more
Texas: 4.2
vs
Boston: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+78.0% more
Texas: 9.5
vs
Boston: 5.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
3.9
2
TEX Score
3.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.3 / 7.0
6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.7
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 5.4
11.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
14.1 / 10.4
12.0 / 8.0
Walks
3.6 / 2.1
5.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
BOS
TEX
BOS
ML
53%
86-76
50%
80-80
57%
91-70
47%
76-87
ATS
57%
92-70
58%
93-67
61%
98-63
48%
79-84
TTL
53%
78-70-14
46%
72-83-5
55%
81-66-14
47%
74-83-6
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