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TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

3-1  |  Road

3
FINAL
Mon, Mar 31 • 6:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

1-2  |  Home

14
Probable Pitchers
Kumar Rocker
STARTING PITCHER

Kumar Rocker

#80 | Starting Pitcher
@
Sam Moll
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Moll

#50 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kumar Rocker None-None 18.00 -- 3.0 3
Sam Moll None-None 6.75 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
18.00 ERA Ldr 6.75
-- WHIP --
3.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
86%
📊
REDS
14%
RANGERS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 80%
Under 0 20%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Texas)
RangersTEX (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

69.7%

Reds Cover

30.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

TEX By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TEX By 3-4 runs

18.5%

CIN By 1-2 runs

13.4%

CIN By 3-4 runs

7.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.83
TEXAS
2.77
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
3
TEXAS
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rangers Loss
86% Win Prob
A
Sim Reds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rangers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.1
D
Sim Reds (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.6
A
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 CIN @ TEX 2 - 1
Apr 4, 2026 CIN @ TEX 2 - 0
Apr 3, 2026 CIN @ TEX 5 - 3
Apr 2, 2025 TEX @ CIN 1 - 0
Apr 1, 2025 TEX @ CIN 1 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.15 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.242 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.713 ▲
OPS
.699
183
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +45.8% more
Texas: 4.1 vs Cincinnati: 2.2
Strikeouts (L5) +33.7% more
Texas: 10.0 vs Cincinnati: 6.6
Home Runs (L5) +27.2% more
Texas: 1.6 vs Cincinnati: 1.2
Total Bases (L5) +21.1% more
Texas: 13.4 vs Cincinnati: 10.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 4.8 3
CIN Score 2.8 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.6 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 6.4 / 7.5 14.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.6 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.6 / 10.0 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 10.6 / 13.4 25.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.2 / 4.1 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
TEX
CIN
TEX
ML
55% 88-71
53% 86-76
49% 79-81
57% 91-70
ATS
54% 86-73
57% 92-70
50% 80-80
61% 98-63
TTL
53% 81-73-5
53% 78-70-14
54% 83-72-5
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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