PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
1-3 | Road
1
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
2-1 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Carmen Mlodzinski
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Englert
#59 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Mlodzinski | None-None | 9.82 | -- | 3.2 | 4 |
| Mason Englert | None-None | 9.00 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
9.82
ERA
Ldr 9.00
--
WHIP
--
3.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
14%
RAYS
86%
PIRATES
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1-2 runs
18.8%
PIT By 3-4 runs
14.3%
TB By 1-2 runs
18.0%
TB By 3-4 runs
12.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.02
PITTSBURGH
Tampa Bay
2.77
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pirates
Loss
14% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pirates (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
B
Sim
Rays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.8
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 19, 2026
TB @ PIT
3 - 6
Apr 18, 2026
TB @ PIT
8 - 7
Apr 17, 2026
TB @ PIT
1 - 5
Apr 2, 2025
PIT @ TB
4 - 2
Apr 1, 2025
PIT @ TB
0 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.734
▲
OPS
.728
186
▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+70.0% more
Pittsburgh: 3.4
vs
Tampa Bay: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+39.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.8
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.4
Home Runs (L5)
+32.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.6
Home Runs (Season)
+9.1% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 169.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.0
1
TB Score
2.8
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.9 / 6.3
10.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.0 / 7.6
10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
12.2 / 10.2
14.0 / 5.0
Walks
1.0 / 3.4
0.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
PIT
TB
PIT
ML
58%
95-68
52%
82-77
58%
95-68
52%
85-78
ATS
60%
97-66
54%
86-73
55%
90-73
50%
81-82
TTL
47%
73-81-9
47%
72-81-6
51%
78-75-10
50%
79-78-6
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