Home / MLB Projections MLB / Guardians @ Padres CLE @ SD

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

2-1  |  Road

2
FINAL
Mon, Mar 31 • 9:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

4-0  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Brayan Rocchio
STARTING PITCHER

Brayan Rocchio

#4 | Shortstop
@
Wandy Peralta
STARTING PITCHER

Wandy Peralta

#58 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brayan Rocchio None-None -- -- -- --
Wandy Peralta None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 0.00
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
0%
📊
PADRES
100%
GUARDIANS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 61%
Under 0 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Cleveland)
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

53.4%

Padres Cover

46.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CLE By 1-2 runs

18.9%

CLE By 3-4 runs

14.5%

SD By 1-2 runs

17.8%

SD By 3-4 runs

12.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4.43
CLEVELAND
4.09
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
3
CLEVELAND
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Guardians Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Guardians (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
C
Sim Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 SD @ CLE 5 - 0
Aug 15, 2026 SD @ CLE 1 - 6
Aug 14, 2026 SD @ CLE 7 - 5
Apr 2, 2025 CLE @ SD 2 - 5
Apr 1, 2025 CLE @ SD 0 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.19
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.696
OPS
▲ .925
162 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +97.5% more
Cleveland: 162.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +62.9% more
Cleveland: 1.6 vs San Diego: 0.6
Errors (L5) +45.0% more
Cleveland: 0.6 vs San Diego: 0.2
Total Bases (L5) +24.5% more
Cleveland: 15.7 vs San Diego: 11.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 4.4 2
SD Score 4.1 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.6 / 8.9 12.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.6 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.2 / 7.5 8.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 11.8 / 15.7 15.0 / 16.0
Walks 3.0 / 3.0 1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
CLE
SD
CLE
ML
51% 85-83
54% 87-74
51% 85-82
49% 80-82
ATS
54% 91-77
58% 93-68
55% 92-75
59% 95-67
TTL
51% 82-80-6
55% 88-71-2
54% 86-74-6
43% 69-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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