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TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

3-2  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, Apr 1 • 6:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

2-2  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Nathan Eovaldi
STARTING PITCHER

Nathan Eovaldi

#17 | Starting Pitcher
@
Elly De La Cruz
STARTING PITCHER

Elly De La Cruz

#44 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Nathan Eovaldi None-None 1.20 -- 9.0 8
Elly De La Cruz None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
1.20 ERA --
-- WHIP --
9.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
8 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
60%
📊
REDS
40%
RANGERS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 75%
Under 0 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Cincinnati)
RangersTEX (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

48.4%

Reds Cover

51.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

TEX By 1-2 runs

18.1%

TEX By 3-4 runs

13.1%

CIN By 1-2 runs

18.7%

CIN By 3-4 runs

14.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.06
TEXAS
4.22
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
3
TEXAS
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Loss
40% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim Reds (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.3
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 CIN @ TEX 2 - 1
Apr 4, 2026 CIN @ TEX 2 - 0
Apr 3, 2026 CIN @ TEX 5 - 3
Apr 2, 2025 TEX @ CIN 1 - 0
Apr 1, 2025 TEX @ CIN 1 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.15 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.242 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.713 ▲
OPS
.699
183
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +34.0% more
Cincinnati: 8.9 vs Texas: 6.7
Home Runs (L5) +27.3% more
Cincinnati: 1.8 vs Texas: 1.4
Total Bases (L5) +25.4% more
Cincinnati: 15.4 vs Texas: 12.3
Home Runs (Season) +16.4% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Texas: 183.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 4.1 1
CIN Score 4.2 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 1.1 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.9 / 6.7 4.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.4 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.4 / 9.4 6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 15.4 / 12.3 4.0 / 8.0
Walks 2.8 / 4.1 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
TEX
CIN
TEX
ML
55% 88-71
53% 86-76
49% 79-81
57% 91-70
ATS
54% 86-73
57% 92-70
50% 80-80
61% 98-63
TTL
53% 81-73-5
53% 78-70-14
54% 83-72-5
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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