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PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

1-4  |  Road

0
FINAL
Tue, Apr 1 • 7:05 PM ET
George M. Steinbrenner Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

3-1  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Mason Montgomery
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Montgomery

#46 | Relief Pitcher
@
Mason Englert
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Englert

#59 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mason Montgomery None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 3
Mason Englert None-None 3.00 -- 2.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 3.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
8%
📊
RAYS
92%
PIRATES --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 82%
Under 0 18%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Tampa Bay)
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

39.6%

Rays Cover

60.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

PIT By 1-2 runs

16.2%

PIT By 3-4 runs

10.4%

TB By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

16.5%

AI Model Projected Score
2.58
PITTSBURGH
3.64
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
3
PITTSBURGH
4
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rays Win
92% Win Prob
A
Sim Rays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
B
Sim Rays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.2
A
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 19, 2026 TB @ PIT 3 - 6
Apr 18, 2026 TB @ PIT 8 - 7
Apr 17, 2026 TB @ PIT 1 - 5
Apr 2, 2025 PIT @ TB 4 - 2
Apr 1, 2025 PIT @ TB 0 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.404 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.734 ▲
OPS
.728
186 ▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +67.7% more
Tampa Bay: 9.3 vs Pittsburgh: 5.5
Total Bases (L5) +51.3% more
Tampa Bay: 12.8 vs Pittsburgh: 8.5
Strikeouts (L5) +18.5% more
Tampa Bay: 10.0 vs Pittsburgh: 8.4
Batting Avg (Season) +0.5%
Tampa Bay: 25.8% vs Pittsburgh: 25.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 2.6 0
TB Score 3.6 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.3 / 5.5 10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.0 / 8.4 15.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 12.8 / 8.5 16.0 / 9.0
Walks 0.7 / 4.0 0.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
PIT
TB
PIT
ML
58% 95-68
52% 82-77
58% 95-68
52% 85-78
ATS
60% 97-66
54% 86-73
55% 90-73
50% 81-82
TTL
47% 73-81-9
47% 72-81-6
51% 78-75-10
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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