Home / MLB Projections MLB / Royals @ Brewers KC @ MIL

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

2-2  |  Road

0
FINAL
Tue, Apr 1 • 7:40 PM ET
American Family Field
View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

0-4  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Salvador Perez
STARTING PITCHER

Salvador Perez

#13 | Designated Hitter
@
Trevor Megill
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor Megill

#29 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Salvador Perez None-None -- -- -- --
Trevor Megill None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 0.00
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
100%
📊
BREWERS
0%
ROYALS --
BREWERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Kansas City)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 BrewersMIL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

59.4%

Brewers Cover

40.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

16.2%

MIL By 1-2 runs

16.4%

MIL By 3-4 runs

10.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3.71
KANSAS CITY
2.76
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Loss
100% Win Prob
A
Sim Brewers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Royals (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Sim Brewers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.5
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 MIL @ KC 8 - 5
Apr 4, 2026 MIL @ KC 2 - 8
Apr 2, 2025 KC @ MIL 2 - 3
Apr 1, 2025 KC @ MIL 0 - 5
Mar 31, 2025 KC @ MIL 11 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Milwaukee MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 5.14
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .341
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.718
OPS
▲ .743
170 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +22.8% more
Kansas City: 14.5 vs Milwaukee: 11.2
Home Runs (L5) +22.0% more
Kansas City: 1.0 vs Milwaukee: 0.8
Hits (L5) +19.4% more
Kansas City: 9.4 vs Milwaukee: 7.5
Home Runs (Season) +9.4% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Milwaukee: 154.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 3.7 0
MIL Score 2.8 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.1 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.5 / 9.4 7.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.0 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.0 / 7.6 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 11.2 / 14.5 13.0 / 7.0
Walks 4.7 / 4.3 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
KC
MIL
KC
ML
62% 101-61
55% 89-72
52% 84-78
56% 90-70
ATS
58% 94-68
57% 91-70
48% 78-84
58% 93-67
TTL
40% 62-92-8
58% 90-64-7
50% 77-77-8
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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